История развития компьютеров (Silicon Valley, its history the best companies)

excellent performance in low- and mid-range servers. Superdome, HP's new

high-end server introduced this quarter, is achieving stronger-than-

expected market acceptance, and volume shipments remain on schedule for

January. NetServer revenues were up 20%. Enterprise storage revenues were

up 40% with the HP Surestore E Disk Array XP512, HP's flagship enterprise

storage product, up 90% in revenues with strong backlog. Software revenues

(excluding VeriFone) were up 18%, but down sequentially with strong order

backlog at the end of the quarter. OpenView revenues were up 29% with

orders up 60%. PC revenues were up 40%, with home PC revenues up 62%,

notebooks up 164%, workstations up 11%, and commercial desktops up 8%.

Operating margin was 3.7%, up from 3.2% last year, but down sequentially

from 7.3% in the third quarter primarily due to margin pressures, higher

expenses and mix changes.

IT Services

The IT services segment -- hardware and software services, along with

mission-critical, outsourcing, consulting and customer financing services --

grew 15% in revenue year over year (18% in local currency). HP's

consulting business achieved in 46% revenue growth, with substantial new

hires broadening and deepening the organization's capabilities.

Operating margin was 7.4%, essentially flat with 7.5% last year.

Costs and Expenses

Cost of goods sold this quarter was 72.5% of net revenue, up from 71.3% in

the year-ago period. Expenses grew 15%. After adjusting for currency,

expense growth was 17%. Operating expenses, as reported, were 20.3% of net

revenue. This compares with 20.7% in the comparable period last year.

Asset Management

Return on assets for the quarter was 10.5% compared with 9.8% in the

comparable quarter last year. Inventory was 11.7% of revenue compared with

11.5% in last year's fourth fiscal quarter. Trade receivables were 13.1% of

revenue compared with 14.1% in the prior year period. Net property, plant

and equipment was 9.2% of revenue compared with 10.2% in the year-ago

quarter.

Full-year Review

Net revenue increased 15% to $48.8 billion. Net revenue in the United

States rose 14% to $21.6 billion, while revenue from outside the United

States increased 16% to $27.2 billion.

Net earnings from continuing operations were $3.6 billion, an increase of

15%, compared with $3.1 billion in fiscal 1999. Net earnings per share were

$1.73 on a diluted basis, up 16% from $1.49 last year.

Outlook for FY 2001

For the 2001 fiscal year ending Oct. 31, 2001, HP expects to achieve

revenue growth in the range of 15 to 17%, compared to 15% in FY 2000. Gross

margin percentage in FY 2001 is expected to be in the range of 27.5 to

28.5%, compared to 28.5% in FY 2000, with improvements beginning in the 2nd

quarter. Total operating expenses in FY 2001 are expected to be

approximately 10 to 12% above FY 2000. Tax rate is expected to remain

constant at approximately 23%.

The forward-looking statements in this Outlook are based on current

expectations and are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions

described under the sub-heading "Forward-Looking Statements." Actual

results may differ materially from the expectations expressed above. These

statements do not include the potential impact of any mergers, acquisitions

or other business combinations that may be completed after Oct. 31, 2000.

HP will be discussing its fourth quarter results and its 2001 outlook on a

conference call today, beginning at 6 a.m. (PST). A live Webcast of the

conference call will be available at

http://www.hp.com/hpinfo/investor/quarters/2000/q4webcast.html. A replay of

the Webcast will be available at the same Web site shortly after the call

and will remain available through 4:30 p.m. PST on Nov. 22, 2000.

The rise of Silicon Valley

Hewlett-Packard was Silicon Valley's first large firm and due to its

success one of the area's most admired electronics firms.

While HP was important for the initial growth of the area and at first was

based on electronic devices, the actual Silicon Valley fever was launched

in the mid-1950s with Shockley and Fairchild, and other semiconductor

firms, and went on to the microelectronics revolution and the development

of the first PCs in the mid-1970s, continuing till today.

Invention of the transistor

One major event was crucial for this whole development. It was the

invention of the transistor that revolutionized the world of electronics.

By the 1940s, the switching units in computers were mechanical relays,

which were then replaced by vacuum tubes. But these vacuum tubes soon

turned out to have some critical disadvantages, which impeded the further

progress in computing technology. In contrast, transistors were much

better. They could perform everything the vacuum tubes did, but "required

much less current, did not generate as much heat, and were much smaller")

than vacuum tubes.

The use of vacuum tubes, which could not be made as small as transistors,

had meant that the computers were very large and drew a lot of power. For

example the famous American ENIAC, built in 1946 and consisting of more

than 18,000 vacuum tubes, had a total weight of 30 tons, filled a whole

room of 500 square meters and consumed 150 KW per hour. The breathtaking

development in computers can be seen, when comparing the ENIAC with today's

laptops which are portable with about 5 kg, are battery driven and run some

100,000 times faster.)

This development was launched by the transistor (short for "transfer

resistance") invention in 1947 by William Shockley and his colleagues John

Bardeen and Walter Brattain. This "major invention of the century") was

made at the Bell Labs in Murray Hill, New Jersey, which are the "R&D arm of

the American Telephone and Telegraph Company (AT&T).") And in 1956, the

three scientists received the Nobel Prize in Physics for their invention

that had "more significance than the mere obsolescence of another bit of

technology.")

The transistor is a "switch - or, more precisely, an electronic "gate,"

opening and closing to allow the passage of current.") Transistors are

solid-state and are based on semiconductors such as silicon. The crystals

of these elements show properties, which are between those of conductors

and insulators, so they are called semiconductors. The peculiarity of

semiconductor crystals is that they can be made "to act as a conductor for

electrical current passing through it in one direction") only, by adding

impurities or "doping" them - for instance, "adding small amounts of boron

of phosphorus.")

Shockley Semiconductor

In 1955, William Shockley, co-inventor of the transistor, decided to start

his own company, Shockley Semiconductor, to build transistors, after

leaving the Bell Labs. The new firm was seated in Palo Alto in Santa Clara

County, California, where he had grown up. Shockley man aged to hire eight

of the best scientists from the East Coast, who were attracted by his

scientific reputation. These talented young men - "the cream of electronics

research" - represented the "greatest collection of electronics genius ever

assembled". Their names were: Julius Blank, Victor Grinich, Eugene Kleiner,

Jean Hoerni, Jay Last, Gordon Moore, Robert Noyce and Sheldon Roberts.)

But however brilliant Shockley was, who was called a "marvelous intuitive

problem solver" and a "tremendous generator of ideas" by Robert Noyce, it

soon turned out that he was "hard as hell to work with", as his style was

"oppressive" and he "didn't have trust and faith in other individuals.")

When Shockley refused the suggestions of his eight engineers who wanted to

concentrate on silicon transistors, while their boss pursued research on

four-layer diodes, they decided to quit and start their own firm in 1957.

Within several months Shockley had to shut down his firm, since he had lost

his engineers, whom he called traitors and they are now known as "the

Traitorous Eight".

Although Shockley was not very successful with his firm in Palo Alto, he

"deserves credit for starting the entrepreneurial chain-reaction that

launched the semiconductor industry in Silicon Valley,") since he had

brought together excellent scientists there like Robert Noyce without whom

there might never have been a Silicon Valley on the San Francisco Peninsula

at all. Or as M. Malone calls it, "Shockley put the last stone in place in

the construction of Silicon Valley.")

The father of one of those young men who left Shockley had contacts to a

New York investment firm, which sent a young executive named Arthur Rock to

secure financing for their new enterprise. Rock asked a lot of companies,

if they were interested in backing this project, but has not been

successful so far. The concept of investing money in new technology

ventures was largely unknown then, and indeed the term "venture capital"

itself wouldn't be coined until 1965") - by Arthur Rock, who should become

Silicon Valley's first and most famous venture capitalist later on.

Finally, due to Rock's efforts, the "Traitorous Eight" managed to obtain

financial support from industrialist Sherman Fairchild to start Fairchild

Semiconductor in 1957.

Fairchild Semiconductor was developed by Shockley's firm, and as the "still

existing granddaddy of them all") has itself spawned scores of other

companies in Silicon Valley: Most semiconductor firms' roots can be traced

back to Fairchild. The most famous ones of them are National Semiconductor,

Intel, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD); and many well-known Valley leaders

have worked at Fairchild, e.g. Charlie Sporck (National Semiconductor),

Jerry Sanders (AMD's founder), Jean Hoerni, and last but not least Robert

Noyce, who is considered the "Mayor of Silicon Valley") due to his

overwhelming success.

Robert Noyce was born in southwestern Iowa in 1927. His father was a

preacher in the Congregational Church and thus was "perpetually on the move

to new congregations, his family in tow.") When the Noyces decided to stay

at the college town of Grinnell, Iowa, for a longer period of time after

many years of moving, this place meant stability in young Bob's life and

thus would become his first and only real home, which he would later regard

as important for his eventual success.

After high school, Robert studied at Grinnell College. His physics

professor had been in contact with John Bardeen (one of the three inventors

of the transistor) and obtained two of the first transistors in 1948, which

he presented his students, including Bob Noyce. This aroused young Robert's

interest in semiconductors and transistors, which made him try to learn

everything he could get about this fascinating field of solid-state

physics.

Having graduated from Grinnell College he continued his studies at "the

premier school of science on the East Coast, MIT,") where he met famous

scientists like Shockley. He received his doctorate, and decided to work at

Philco until 1955, when he was invited by William Shockley to join a new

firm named "Shockley Semiconductor" in Santa Clara County - together with

seven other splendid scientists.

When the so-called "Shockley Eight" started a new venture with Fairchild

Semiconductor, Robert Noyce began "his own transformation from engineer to

business manager:") He was chosen to lead the new company as he seemed the

best to do this job.

Fairchild Semiconductor focused on building a marketable silicon transistor

applying a new manufacturing process called "mesa". Despite being the

smallest company in electronics business then, it attracted public

attention, particularly in 1958, when "Big Blue" - as dominant IBM is

nicknamed - ordered the "first-ever mesa silicon transistors") for memory

drivers in its computers.

This order contributed to the early success of Fairchild Semiconductor, and

indicated the beginning of a long relationship between IBM and Silicon

Valley.

Importance of military funding

Before switching over to the events at Intel, the aspect of military

funding is to be dealt with, since it has played an important role in the

early days of Silicon Valley.

During World War II, after the Japanese attack at Pearl Harbor in 1942, a

great deal of the U.S. military forces and of the military production was

moved to California. Within a few years, California - formerly an

agricultural state - became a booming industrial state and the military

center of the USA.)

After the war, in the time of the Cold War and the arms race, the Korean

conflict, the "missile gap" and the space program, the Pentagon kept

ordering high-technology products from the armament factories in

California. Many companies established R&D departments and production

facilities in Santa Clara County near Stanford University, which provided

them with bright engineers and scientists, and were largely supported by

the Pentagon's demand for electronic high-tech products.

Examples for such firms are FMC, GTE, Varian Associates, Westinghouse, and

finally Lockheed, which opened its R&D department in the Stanford Research

Park in 1956, and started Lockheed Missiles and Space Company (LMSC) in

Sunnyvale. Lockheed's move to Northern California was crucial for the

developments in Santa Clara County; today the company is Silicon Valley's

largest employer with more than 24,000 people.)

Military funding for high-tech products was responsible for the early

growth of Silicon Valley in the 1950s and 1960s. The U.S. Department of

Defense was the biggest buyer of these products, e.g. its purchases

represented about 70 percent of the total production of ICs in 1965.)

While this share in chip demands has dropped to 8 percent today, the

Pentagon remains the biggest supporter of new technologies and accounts for

most of the purchases of the latest developments.

Intel Corp.

After the transistor and the integrated circuit, the invention of the

microprocessor in the early 1970s represents the next step towards the

modern way of computing, providing the basis for the subsequent personal

computer revolution.

It was at Intel where the first microprocessor was designed - representing

the key to modern personal computers. With its logic and memory chips, the

company provides the basic components for microcomputers. Intel is regarded

as Silicon Valley's flagship and its most successful semiconductor company,

owing its worldwide leading role to a perpetually high spending on research

and development (R&D).

Foundation in 1968

It all started in 1968, when Bob Noyce resigned as head of Fairchild

Semiconductor taking along Gordon Moore and Andy Grove, to embark on a new

venture. They had decided to leave the company, because they wanted "to

regain the satisfaction of research and development in a small, growing

company,") since Fairchild had become big with lots of bureaucracy work to

be done. Gordon Moore had belonged to the famous Shockley Eight and was in

charge of the R&D team at Fairchild. Andy Grove, a young Hungarian йmigrй,

who had earned a doctorate in chemical engineering at U.C. Berkeley, had

joined Fairchild in the early 1960s.

Intel (short for Integrated Electronics), a typical Fairchild spin-off, was

financially backed by venture capital from Arthur Rock, who had been in

contact with Noyce since 1957. The company was founded upon the idea of

integrating many transistors on a chip of silicon, after Noyce had

developed a new photochemical process. The three engineers initially

focused on building the first semiconductor chips used for computer memory,

which should replace the dominant memory storage technology at the time,

called "magnetic core". Intel's task was to drive down the cost per bit by

increasing the capacity of memory chips dramatically.

First products - Moore's Law

Within a year, Intel developed its first product - the 3101 Schottky

bipolar 64-bit static random access memory (SRAM), which was followed soon

after by the 1101. This chip (1101) was a 256-bit SRAM and had been

developed on Intel's new "silicon gate metal -oxide semiconductor (MOS)

process," which should become the "industry's process technology of

choice.") With the first two products, the young company started with 12

employees and net revenues of $2,672 in 1968, had already gained the

technological lead in the field of memory chips.

Intel's first really successful product was the 1103 dynamic random access

memory (DRAM), which was manufactured in the MOS process. Introduced in

1970, this chip was the "first merchant market LSI (large-scale integrated)

DRAM," and received broad acceptance because it was superior to magnetic

core memories. So, by the end of 1971, the 1103 became "the world's largest-

selling semiconductor device" and provided the capital for Intel's early

growth.)

Until today, semiconductors have "adhered to Moore's Law," which has been

framed by the "cofounder of Fairchild and Intel" when the first commercial

DRAMs appeared in the early 1970s. This law predicts that the price per bit

(the smallest unit of memory) drops by 30 percent every year. It implies

that you will receive 30 percent more power (speed/capacity) at the same

price, or that the "price of a certain power is 30 percent less.")

Moore's Law applies to both memory chips and microprocessors, and shows the

unprecedented rapid progress in microelectronics. This "astonishing ratio"

has never occurred in "the history of manufacturing" before. Applied to

automobiles, it means that "a Cadillac would have a top speed of 500 miles

per hour, get two hundred miles to a gallon of gas and cost less than a

dollar" - almost incredible.)

1971 was a crucial year at Intel. The company's revenues surpassed

operating expenses for the first time, and the company went public, raising

$6.8 million.

Moreover, the company introduced a new memory chip - the first erasable,

programmable read only memory (EPROM). Invented by Intel's Dov Frohman, the

new memory could store data permanently like already existing ROMs, but

besides could be erased simply by a beam of ultraviolet light and be used

again. The EPROM was initially viewed as a "prototyping device" for R&D.

The invention of the microprocessor in the same year, however, showed the

real significance of the EPROM, which could be used by original equipment

manufacturer (OEM) customers (they build the end-products) to store

microprocessor programs in a "flexible and low-cost way." The "unexpected

synergy" between the EPROM and the microprocessor resulted in a growing

market for both chips and contributed a great deal to Intel's early

success.)

"Ted" Hoff's first microprocessor

The invention of the microprocessor marked a turning point in Intel's

history. This development "changed not only the future of the company, but

much of the industrial world.")

The story to this technological breakthrough began in 1969, when a Japanese

calculator manufacturer called Busicomp asked Intel to design a set of

chips for a family of programmable calculators. Marcian "Ted" Hoff, a young

and "very bright ex-Stanford research associate") who had joined Intel as

employee number 12, was charged with this project. However, he did not like

the Japanese design calling for 12 custom chips - each of them was assigned

a distinct task. Hoff thought designing so many different chip s would make

the calculators as expensive as minicomputers such as DEC's PDP-8, although

they could merely be used for calculation. His idea was to develop a four-

chip set with a general-purpose logic device as its center, which could be

programmed by inst ructions stored on a semiconductor memory chip. This was

the theory behind the first microprocessor.

With the help of new employee Stan Mazor, Hoff perfected the design of what

would be the 4004 arithmetic chip. After Busicomp had accepted Hoff's chip

set, Frederico Faggin, one of the best chip design experts, who had been

hired recently, began transforming the design into silicon. The 4004

microprocessor, a 4-bit chip (processes 4 bits - a string of four ones or

zeroes - of information at a time), contained 2300 MOS transistors, and was

as powerful as the legendary first electronic computer, ENIAC.

Soon after the first 4004s had been delivered to Busicomp, Intel realized

the market potential of the chip, and successfully renegotiated with the

Japanese to regain the exclusive rights, which had been sold to Busicomp.

In November 1971, Intel introduced the 4004 to the public in an Electronic

News ad. It announced not just a new product, but "a new era of integrated

electronics [...], a micro programmable computer on a chip.") The

microprocessor is - as Gordon Moore call s it - "one of the most

revolutionary products in the history of mankind,") and ranks as one of 12

milestones of American technology in a survey of U.S. News and World Report

in 1982. This chip is the actual computer itself: It is the central

processing u nit (CPU) - the computer's brains. The microprocessor made

possible the microcomputer, which is "as big as it is only to accommodate

us." For "we'd have a hard time getting information into or out of a

microprocessor without a keyboard, a printer and a terminal," as Th.Mahon

puts it.)

However significant Hoff's invention, nevertheless, it was hardly noticed

in the public until early 1973. The microprocessor had its own instruction

set and was to be programmed in order to execute specific tasks. So Ted

Hoff had to inform the public and t he engineers about the capabilities of

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